Developing trading variables

How to Think Like a Trader — and Test Like a Data Analyst

Trading isn’t just screen time and chart markups. If you want to build a real edge, you’re going to need to think like a trader, but test like a data analyst. Your success won’t just come from spotting setups. It’ll come from knowing — with data — what works, what doesn’t, and how well. Let’s dive into what it really means to develop trading variables — and how to test them like a professional.

What Are Trading Variables, Really?

Trading variables are the components of your system — the conditions and rules you set before entering a trade. These can include:

- Entry triggers (e.g., FVG + HTF close + structure break)

- Exit logic (e.g., fixed RR, dynamic trailing stops, structure-based TP)

- Risk allocation (e.g., 1.5% per trade on HTF setups, 0.5% on LTF scalps)

- Timeframe stack

- Market filters (e.g., BTC PA, USDT.D, Total3 context)

- Confirmation count (minimum 3+ before entry)

- SL distance logic (based on volatility, structure, ATR)

The Art of Testing Trading Ideas

Great traders don’t just trade — they build hypotheses and test them.

'What happens when I only enter longs on HTF demand zones + LTF BOS + BTC HTF support?'

'What if I switch from fixed SLs to structure-based SLs on MTFs?'

'What’s my actual win rate when I trade pullbacks vs breakouts?'

Step-by-Step: How to Test Your Variables

1. Backtest with Intent

Open TradingView and manually scroll back in time. Look for clean setups that meet your variable conditions — log them in a spreadsheet.

2. Log Everything

Create an Excel or Google Sheets doc with structured columns:

- Setup type (HTF S/R flip, MTF breakout, etc.)

- Number of confirmations

- Risk %

- Position size

- Final result (R-multiple)

- Notes on psychology / market condition

3. Analyze Patterns

After 50+ entries, start breaking it down:

- Which setups have the highest R-multiple average?

- Where do you get stopped the most?

- What time of day/week performs worst?

- Which confirmation combos are most reliable?

4. Forward Test Small

Test improved strategies with tiny real positions (0.1–0.25% risk). Simultaneously record the same data. You’re validating the theory under live conditions now. Include slippage, execution speed, psychology.

Final Thoughts: Build the Edge You Can Prove

Anyone can 'feel' like something works. But until you log, test, and analyze, it’s just a feeling.

Want to trade like the casino? Then build your system like the house does:

- With data.

- With probability.

- With tested assumptions.